Higher borrowing costs, continued uncertainty about the economy and Bank of Canada decision making, and the constrained supply of listings resulted in fewer home sales in August 2023 compared to August 2022. The average selling price remained virtually unchanged over the same period. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, sales and average price edged lower.

Looking forward, we know there will be solid demand for luxury housing in Toronto. Record immigration levels alone will assure this. In the short term, we will likely continue to see some volatility in terms of sales and home prices, as buyers and sellers wait for more certainty on the direction of borrowing costs and the overall economy. The Toronto Real Estate Board reported 5,294 sales in August 2023 – down by 5.2% compared to August 2022. New listings were up by 16.2% year-over-over, providing some relief on the supply front, but year-to-date listings are still down substantially compared to the same period last year. Seasonally adjusted sales were down slightly by one per cent month-over-month compared to July 2023, while new listings were up slightly by 1.3% compared to July.

More balanced market conditions this summer compared to the tighter spring market resulted in selling prices hovering at last year’s levels and dipping slightly compared to July. As interest rates continued to increase in May, after a pause in the winter and early spring, many buyers have had to adjust their offers in order to qualify for higher monthly payments. Not all sellers have chosen to take lower than expected selling prices, resulting in fewer sales.

The MLS® Home Price Index Composite benchmark for August 2023 was up by 2.5% year-over-year. The average selling price was also up, but by less than 1% to $1,082,496 over the same timeframe. On a month-over-month seasonally adjusted basis, the MLS® HPI Composite benchmark was virtually unchanged and the average price edged lower by 1.6%.

While higher interest rates have certainly impacted affordability, the prospect of higher taxes will also hit households’ balance sheets, especially younger buyers with limited savings. With the City of Toronto moving to raise the municipal land transfer tax (MLTT) rate on properties over $3 million as a revenue tool, it must also consider helping first-time home buyers struggling to enter the market by adjusting their tax rebate threshold to reflect today’s higher home prices.

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